Conversely, in years when acorns are scarce, the birds often have to travel great distances to locate nourishment and are much more likely to come across the paths of hunters. Also, when the flocks do locate food, they tend to stay in one place longer, allowing persistent hunters to zero in on their locations. As the biologist noted, when this scenario plays out, the harvest rate rises.

In addition, as the biologist stated, weather conditions during the reproductive season have not been favorable to turkeys for much of this decade. A series of cold, wet springs have negatively affected nesting and brooding efforts. I asked Norman what kind of conditions would be most favorable for a good hatch, which we desperately need right now.

"An early spring helps, so warm weather in March will advance the spring green up," he explained. "Dry conditions during nesting will help, as predators aren't likely to be as successful detecting nesting hens if the scenting conditions are poor. Some rainfall is helpful to aid in the insect population production, so light rains in early May are helpful. Downpours and cold conditions in May are, however, detrimental to young poults."

If heavy rains occur during the period when poults first hatch, they can, and often do, experience hypothermia. The hen simply cannot protect all her offspring with her body as they "roost" on the ground. Once the feathers and wings of the young birds have developed and they can fly up to roost with the flock hen, their chances for survival increase a great deal.

Another relevant fact about brood success is the local conditions at the time of the hatch. The 29-acre tract that my family lives on in Botetourt County traditionally has annually had a hen nest on it or somewhere nearby. Early almost every summer, we watch as a flock hen parades her poults through our back yard where they search for various wild seeds and fruits with the raspberries and blackberries being special favorites.

During late May of 2005, a period when the poults often hatch, our little plot received a series of late cold fronts and chilly rains. For the first time in years, we did not witness a flock hen and her young ones the entire summer. During late May of 2006, our land experienced warm, seasonable nights with no precipitation. Over the course of the summer, we saw two different flock hens with a total of 23 poults.

The point is that just as the old political saying "all politics is local" is true, so is the aphorism that "all turkey hatch results are local." If you want to have a better idea of the relative number of gobblers around in two years, begin to keep a logbook on when the turkeys hatch in your area and record what the weather conditions were like during that time.

FALL TURKEY HUNTERS DECREASE IN NUMBER
In 1993, the Commonwealth sported about 103,000 fall turkey hunters, and some 40,000 of them have either stopped hunting or pursuing fall birds.

"I recently took a look at a number of factors that could be contributing to the declining fall harvest," Norman said. "I looked at the number of fall hunters, their daily and season success rates, the previous year's spring harvest and other things. The only factor that was significant in the regression equation was the number of hunters.

"Actually, there was another factor that was related, but the relationship was negative. It suggested that as the fall harvest has declined, the success rates of the remaining hunters have increased."

This statement also needs further comment. Bowhunting for deer is tremendously popular and the early muzzleloader season has become so in our state. In the past, when the fall turkey season commenced, many sportsmen would cease deer hunting for a while and pursue turkeys. Among my peer group of hunting friends, very few of us do the same today.

As much as I relish deer hunting, I always cease for a while and think of nothing but turkeys the first week of the early season. The early muzzleloader season exploded in popularity in the early to mid-1990s (when fall turkey hunter numbers were still high) and quite probably has contributed to fewer folks chasing after fall birds.

Another thing that may have negatively affected the fall kill is that many Virginia turkey enthusiasts now save all three of their tags for the spring season. Hunters can kill three turkeys per license year, no more than two of which may be taken in the fall. The fall birds, of course, can be of either sex, while the spring ones must be bearded.

As much as I relish hunting in the spring, I favor the fall season and annually try to kill two birds in the fall, as was the case this past autumn. I don't mind just having one Virginia tag left every spring. My type of thinking, however, is in the minority among hunters, as most state sportsmen today prefer the spring season. And these individuals hoard their three tags (or at least two) until April and that type of reasoning is, of course, understandable as well.