To explain further, the 2006 season was a better one than the 2007 season partly because the poult-to-hen ratio was better in 2004. That year, the statewide ratio was 3.1, compared with the horrible ratio in 2005 of 1.9. Further crunching the numbers, the 2004 ratio has been the highest this decade, though that figure of 3.1 is certainly not a high one. For instance, the 28-year average has been 3.1 with the years of 1979, 1980 and 1981 sporting legendary ratios of 4.9, 4.5 and 4.6, respectively. The only other years when the ratio was 4.0 or better were 1987 (4.0) and 1989 (4.2).

Lack of 2-year-old gobblers was not the only problem Virginia hunters faced last year, either.

Earlier I mentioned the rainy opening day, blustery opening week, and some cold snaps that also took place in several parts of the state, especially in far western Virginia over the first fortnight of the season. Norman said those, too, were negative factors.

“About 70 percent of the harvest comes in the first two weeks of the season,” he explained. “Bad weather conditions prevailed during the early part of the season and probably contributed to the low harvest.”

Given the critical nature of the poult-to-adult-hen ratio of two years before any given season, it is very important to know what the 2006 ratio was toward giving insight on Virginia hunters’ fortunes for the 2008 season. Unfortunately, the ratio in 2006 was just 1.8 statewide. Indeed, the ratio was low in regions across the state: North Mountain (2.2), South Mountain (2.5), North Piedmont (2.0), South Piedmont (1.4) and Tidewater (0.8).

Based on these figures, Tidewater sportsmen may find it especially difficult to find hard-gobbling 2-year-olds this coming spring, as will individuals in the South Piedmont. South Mountain hunters should have a great many more turkeys around but certainly not large numbers. However, some good news does exist, the turkey biologist believes.

“Ordinarily, I would not expect a significant change in the 2008 spring harvest based on the 2006 reproduction, but the harvest rate of our radio-marked birds in 2007 was only 18 percent,” Norman continued. “Previously, harvest rates have been much higher, as high as 50 percent. I think poor weather was the main reason for the low 2007 harvest rate. The bottom line is I think there was a good carry-over of adult toms (which will be 3 years old this spring) and that may compensate for the low 2006 recruitment. So, I hope things will be at least as good as last year and maybe better.”

Norman’s reference to radio-marked birds is relevant. For five years now, VDGIF personnel have been involved with the Mid-Atlantic Gobbler Study. Norman stated that one of the primary objectives of the study is to learn more about gobbler survival rates. Thus far, he said, as one would expect, legal hunting mortality rates are the highest cause of death. With on average so many radio-collared toms avoiding death in 2007, there may well be a fair to good number of 3-year-olds present this spring.

The next category of gobblers that will be about this spring is, of course, jakes. Throughout the state, poults usually hatch sometime between late May and early June. The young birds can typically fly up to roost sometime during their first 10 to 14 days of life. Therefore, until that time, the hen must shield poults from the overnight elements. That’s why it is critical that the late-May to early-June period not have cold, damp conditions. When any area of the state experiences that type of condition, the increase in poult mortality can certainly contribute to a worse poult-to-adult-hen ratio.

In southwest Virginia where I live, the late-May to early-June period was fairly warm and dry and, not surprisingly, I observed good numbers of poults with hens last summer. My wife, Elaine, even witnessed one huge flock consisting of three adult hens and about 20 young, which would have produced, for example, a ratio of about 7.0.

So, a critical question for future hunting is, “Statewide, were weather conditions favorable for a good hatch?”

“The 2007 hatch looks promising,” was Norman’s answer. “Jim Clay (noted turkey call manufacturer) in Winchester said that they’re seeing more broods than they’ve seen in recent years. Weather conditions were generally favorable.”