“The poult-to-hen ratio was 1.9 in 2005, near the recent average,” he said. “Therefore, one could expect an average age-class of 2-year-old birds, all things being equal, for example, no abnormal fall harvest due to mast failures. Given good weather, I expect the 2007 harvest to be in the neighborhood of 17,000 to 18,000 birds.”

Based on the voluminous statistics that the VDGIF keeps on turkey hunting, 92 percent of the turkeys killed this past spring were 2-year-old and older gobblers. Some years, though, 1-year-old males, jakes, make up a higher percentage of the harvest because of good poult production the year before. The number of jakes present this spring will also give an indication of what hunting will be like in 2008 -- so the 2006 hatch is very important to hunters this season, too.

I have two simple formulas to very roughly determine how the hatch has been in Botetourt and Craig counties, the two domains where I most often hunt. In June and July, I drive back roads looking for hens with poults. This past summer, I observed quite a few mama hens with young -- sometimes as many as 10 to 12 birds. I also watch for flocks coming to my back yard in July to dine on the wild blackberries that grow in a transition zone between the yard and woods. This past summer, I glimpsed a flock several times -- a very good sign. Gary Norman, of course, has a more reliable method of determining poult production. One positive sign was that much of the state experienced a mild winter and an early spring.

“The early warm spring weather always helps get things going as far as spring green-up, which does seem to help with earlier nesting and more re-nesting efforts,” he said. “Rainfall picked up later in the summer, which typically is not a problem unless accompanied by cold temperatures. We had good numbers of brood reports early. Seems like brood reports in eastern Virginia weren’t as good as the west.”

Of course, the success or failure of a hatch is not known until the VDGIF has had time to analyze the fall harvest, and figures for the 2006-07 season were not available at press time. The number of jakes and jennies in the harvest tells biologists what poult production was like the previous spring and summer.

TRENDS AND STATS
As noted, Gary Norman keeps voluminous amounts of statistics regarding turkeys and that enables him, the VDGIF, and us turkey fanatics to know much more about this marvelous big-game bird. One of the more interesting aspects of the statistics is how each region fared.

Norman reports that the North Mountain region’s harvest in 2006 was 15 percent greater than its five-year average, which was better than any other region. The Tidewater (7 percent), South Piedmont (5 percent) and Northern Piedmont (4 percent) also did well. However, the South Mountain expanse exhibited a harvest of 4,147 -- a decrease, but a decrease of less than 1 percent.

The top 10 counties (with the harvest number in parentheses) were as follows: Bedford (627), Franklin (539), Pittsylvania (528), Southampton (426), Scott (338), Halifax (336), Rockbridge (325), Grayson (312), Sussex (301) and Patrick (298).