Photo by Mark Werner

For most big-game species, harvests from the previous year can aid somewhat in predicting future seasons, but if you are looking for an exact science in black bear forecasts, you have a long search ahead of you.

"A bear forecast is dependent upon weather, mast crops and other key factors that are out of anyone's control," said Bob Duncan, the wildlife division director for Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries. "Even so, we look at our trends -- particularly in the last few years -- and we are currently managing bears differently today than we did in past years. Part of this is trying to get our arms around the 300 bear complaints annually from landowners and other people."

The wildlife expert said it is apparent the regulation changes (a statewide archery season, for example) implemented by VDGIF affected the fate of bruin hunters in a positive light -- in terms of harvest -- but not as much as one would have expected. Certain parts of the state never had the opportunity to hunt bears with a bow before, until last season. Several counties in southwestern Virginia were opened to a two-week gun-hunting season, and a four-day muzzle-loading season was opened in more than half of the Commonwealth.

Although the 2004-2005 black bear harvest was down from the all-time record high of 2003-2004 -- where hunters bagged 1,510 black bears -- the season was still impressive with 1,130 bears checked in by hunters. This is the second-highest black bear harvest in Virginia history.

"Bear population estimates are difficult to make, but computer models are being refined as a part of recent bear research that will improve our ability to predict population levels," said Dennis Martin, the black bear project leader for VDGIF. "Harvest and other data suggest that there could be 7,000 to 9,000 bears statewide."

"There are more bears in the state than people realize and the population is strong and probably increasing in many areas," Duncan said. "We want to maintain a viable bear population in areas where bears are already present, but at the same time we don't want more in areas that are heavily populated with people. In that case, we want to stabilize the black bear population. We want to harvest enough of the surplus of bears, yet maintain a stable population at the same time.

"We compare nicely with other states in our area, such as North Carolina, Tennessee and West Virginia. Conditions in Virginia are good for black bears this season and they are out there."

THE 2004-2005 BLACK BEAR HARVEST
"The total bear harvest included 736 males (65 percent) and 394 females (35 percent)," Martin said.

Archery hunters arrowed 205 bruins (18 percent of the total harvest), a decrease of 46 percent from the previous year's harvest of 446, he said. However, the archery kill was close to the previous 35-year average of 17 percent of the total bear harvest.

"Firearms hunters who did not hunt during the hound-hunting season killed 308 bears, representing 27 percent of the total harvest (the average is 31 percent) during the second week of the deer-gun season (first week of the bear-gun season)," Martin added. "That's a decrease of 18 percent from the previous year's harvest of 375."