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Virginia Game & Fish
Virginia's 2007 Smallmouth Bass Forecast

In late June, flooding conditions prevailed on our western Virginia rivers. However, the biologist continued, by then, the 2006 year-class was already a failure.

"When the high water came in late June, adult bass moved laterally from the main channel to the banks and, in some cases, into the flood plain beyond the banks," Smith said. "When the water began to recede, the adults followed.

"The 2006 year-class likely did the same. A fish's swimming speed is based on how long it is. The 2006 class was probably 1/2 to 3/4 inch by then, long enough so that they could successfully deal with the high water. Smallmouths less than 1/2 inch usually can't deal with flooding and are swept away."


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Statewide in our smallmouth rivers overall, the biologist offered these general classifications for recent year-classes: 2005 (pretty good), 2004 (great), 2003 (awful), and 1998 to 2003 (bad). He emphasized that a "pile" of fish fin in our rivers from the 2004 and 2005 year-classes and that in 2007, members of the 2004 year-class should be 11 to 12 inches and members of the 2005 class should be 8 to 10 inches. Generally, Virginia river smallmouths take three to four years to attain a foot in length.

Smith then offers these last words on the spawn.

"I can see how fishing pressure during the spawn could have an effect on small creeks," he said. "Those fish are much more visible. But in a flowing river with current, it is very hard for many anglers to even spot a bed."

As Smith commented earlier, the mortality rate of any given river smallmouth year-class is quite high. Winter die-off is an especially major factor. Here are the latest figures on survival rates for a given year-class on our major rivers.

• 40 percent survival rate on the Rappahannock system -- the worst in the state.
• 50 to 60 percent survival rate on the James.
• 70 to 80 percent survival rate on the upper New and the Holston -- the best in the state.

Also, Smith listed how much time expires on various rivers before a given bronzeback reaches 18 inches -- a universally recognized "nice" one.

• Lynchburg to Richmond section of James: 7 1/2 years.
• Upper James: 9 1/4 years.
• Staunton: 8.2 years.
• Upper New and Main Stem of Shenandoah: 9 1/2 years.
• Lower New: 9.7 years.
• Rappahannock System: 10 3/4 years.

"Some Virginia rivers have fast-growing smallmouths, some have high survival," Smith said. "For a river to have both is pretty rare."

Finally, the biologist said that if Virginia river smallmouth anglers want better fishing, they should work with landowners to accomplish the following:

• Create more riparian buffers along streams.
• Encourage local governments to find sources of non-point pollution runoff.
• Work with landowners and various agencies to restore wetlands.

UPDATE ON THE RAPPAHANNOCK
VDGIF biologist John Odenkirk is very enthusiastic about some recent happenings on the Rappahannock and Rapidan system.

"Smallmouth bass anglers should experience one of the best years in recent memory given the dominant/record 2004 and above-average 2005 year-classes," he said. "Smallmouth bass electrofishing (EF) catch rates were average, while we estimate that 2006 catch rates were above average.


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